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Chance Encounter

A recent bill caught my attention, one that lumps chess into the same game-of-chance classification as poker.

Under the Skill Game Protection Act, games of skill, such as, poker, mah-jong, bridge, chess, and others will be classified by law as games of skill.
Wexler's bill attempts to draw a fine line between games of "total chance" and those involving skill. Thanks a lot, asshole. Chess has always been a game of skill, unlike the other games he mentions. And the definition of skill he's looking for in the others is a very slippery thing since those games involve a large degree of chance.

To begin with, I fail to understand how Wexler could even remotely considered chess a game of chance. Players start with the same pieces and pawns. The board is completely open and visible for the duration of the game, and the only surprises are from your and your opponent's skill (or lack of it). Can the day-to-day variance in a player's ability be considered chance? Possibly but I doubt it. At its heart, there is zero degree of chance built into the game itself.

In poker, on the other hand, it sure seems like chance is a big part of the game. I've played a little poker and it has always galled me that I could play a hand perfectly then get t-boned by the flop or, on the other hand, pleasantly rewarded on the turn. There is a balance between skill (play decisions about your hand, betting strategies) and chance (randomization of the deck, flop/turn/river). But to state that chance is not a factor and poker is purely a skill game is patently ludicrous. If poker were as much about skill as Wexler and the bill's supporters believe, then the heavy hitters would be lasting far longer into tournament play than some do.

The part of me that appreciates free enterprise doesn't really mind the growth of web gaming, provided minors are kept out of it. I don't particularly like government intervention - or remediation - in what adults do with their money, free time or genitals. If online gamblers wants to roll the dice (:: rimshot ::) by trusting a gaming site with their credit card then that's their business.

At its heart, Wexler's bill seems to be strictly an attempt to create new venues for online gambling as well as revenue streams for site operators. Fine. Great. But don't tell me chess has an element of chance or that poker doesn't.


UPDATE: Further research uncovered this opinion piece by a poker pro on how skillful play will mitigate or outright eliminate chance over the long term.

What this shows me is that, over the long haul, luck is not only insignificant when it comes to your results - it's non-existent.
Given that his assessment stipulates a player "who puts in eight hours a day, five days a week, for 50 weeks per year", that might pretty much rule out the great majority of poker players. IMHO, skillful poker play might reduce the effects of the element of chance but not eliminate it entirely.

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