A Veneer of Certainty

In the spirit of Ron Paul's call for competing currencies, I'm donating to his campaign two cases of canned goods, a half cord of firewood and some obsolete computer parts.

Personally, I find this disgusting and no different from a man dating a woman just for the sex. Granted, what happens between two consenting adults in nobody's business but theirs. However, if the guy is unaware of how he's being taken advantage of - especially if the plan is to dump him when he's no longer useful - then women who use this tactic have embraced one of the darker, more hurtful behaviors of some men.

Recently in the comments section of the Houston Chronicle, a reader asked why not impose a surcharge on remittances leaving the United States to help recoup the costs of treating/housing/incarcerating illegal immigrants. Seems like a fine idea.

HOUSTON, TX – A tragic wreck today killed the credibility of one when statements during court proceedings by April Davis of Baytown collided with those she had made months ago, shearing off the top of her story and leaving her self-respect broken and bleeding. Prosecutors say that it appears that Davis contradicted herself from statements to media early on in the investigation of the automobile wreck involving her son, an unlicensed driver, and a stolen vehicle. Investigators say that evidence points to the impact of “He's never taken my car that I know of” when it hit the recorded statement of “"Yeah, they had taken the car before” at high speed, instantly killing Davis’ believability and leaving paper tape debris around the court reporter’s chair.

Continue reading "Credibility Tragedy in Baytown" »

I'm current working on a 2-year data architecting project of a size, scope and visibility that could produce severe bowel control problems if we don't get it right. Aside from the enormity of the data modeling task - even with tools - the old religious war of natural key vs. surrogate key is again raising its ugly head. Some spot research on the latest thinking revealed a nicely-written commentary on the battle and merits of both.

I respect Walker's approach to the topic as rejects the usual dogmatic standpoints of the extremists, and rational explanation of his views. While I'm not 100% convinced on broad use of surrogate keys I appreciate the article's points of data abstraction and performance considerations. However, as with a lot of articles on the topic it neglects the downstream issues with identity columns (table replication/loading, archiving, etc.) but those are a minor concern. Overall I liked the arguments and will rely on Walker's points when I get to the physical model.

This pic just cracks me up. I imagine the same ilk clustered around the table when Limbaugh was doing his beer hall putsch in the early 90's.

Much like the recent hue and cry for assistance for those with subprime mortgage woes, I can't help but wonder if much of the market volatility of late has been contrived to pressure the Federal Reserve into reducing interest rates even further. A threat, if you will, to hold the economy hostage until the Fed relents and provides an indirect bailout via fluid credit.

And where were the risk management departments when CDO's packed with subprimes were going around? For several years we've been hearing about the vaunted risk management strategies employed by some of the largest financial institutions. It even became a career path, for 's sake. Were they looking the wrong way when hedging?

Either way, it's called "risk" for a reason. Mitigate it via legal & ethical means, not an indirect bailout.

From the head to the shoulders to the floor, another flake departs. Please, [insert deity of your choice here], don't let her get involved in Texas politics again. We don't need another incompetent loyalist bearing the foul taint of the Bush administration getting into public service.

A recent bill caught my attention, one that lumps chess into the same game-of-chance classification as poker.

Under the Skill Game Protection Act, games of skill, such as, poker, mah-jong, bridge, chess, and others will be classified by law as games of skill.

To begin with, I fail to understand how Wexler could even remotely considered chess a game of chance. Players start with the same pieces and pawns. The board is completely open and visible for the duration of the game, and the only surprises are from your and your opponent's skill (or lack of it). Can the day-to-day variance in a player's ability be considered chance? Possibly but I doubt it. At its heart, there is zero degree of chance built into the game itself.

In poker, on the other hand, it sure seems like chance is a big part of the game. I've played a little poker and it has always galled me that I could play a hand perfectly then get t-boned by the flop or, on the other hand, pleasantly rewarded on the turn. There is a balance between skill (play decisions about your hand, betting strategies) and chance (randomization of the deck, flop/turn/river). But to state that chance is not a factor and poker is purely a skill game is patently ludicrous. If poker were as much about skill as Wexler and the bill's supporters believe, then the heavy hitters would be lasting far longer into tournament play than some do.

Continue reading "Chance Encounter" »